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7/15/2015 7:44 am  #1


So long Seattle.....(.....sometime in the next 50 years)

I didn't know where to post this since we don't have an "impending doom" section of the Exchange.

This is a very well written, very well researched, and kinda terrifying article about the geology of the pacific northwest of the United States. Seattle, Portland, Vancouver, and just about all of Washington state and Oregon are sitting upon fault line that, when it snaps (there's a one-in-three chance of this occurring in the next 50 years) is estimated to kill 13,000 people, injure 27,000 and leave around two million people in the area without basic services for upwards of two years. The tsumani this is projected to occur with this earthquake innundate the Oregon coast with a 45 foot high wave. And federal, state, and local governments, despite knowing the science behind all of this, has done remarkably little to prepare.

It's a very long read, but worth it.

<quick excerpt below>

........When the next very big earthquake hits, the northwest edge of the continent, from California to Canada and the continental shelf to the Cascades, will drop by as much as six feet and rebound thirty to a hundred feet to the west—losing, within minutes, all the elevation and compression it has gained over centuries. Some of that shift will take place beneath the ocean, displacing a colossal quantity of seawater........ The water will surge upward into a huge hill, then promptly collapse. One side will rush west, toward Japan. The other side will rush east, in a seven-hundred-mile liquid wall that will reach the Northwest coast, on average, fifteen minutes after the earthquake begins. By the time the shaking has ceased and the tsunami has receded, the region will be unrecognizable. Kenneth Murphy, who directs FEMA’s Region X, the division responsible for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska, says, “Our operating assumption is that everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”

In the Pacific Northwest, everything west of Interstate 5 covers some hundred and forty thousand square miles, including Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Salem (the capital city of Oregon), Olympia (the capital of Washington), and some seven million people. When the next full-margin rupture happens, that region will suffer the worst natural disaster in the history of North America. Roughly three thousand people died in San Francisco’s 1906 earthquake. Almost two thousand died in Hurricane Katrina. Almost three hundred died in Hurricane Sandy. FEMA projects that nearly thirteen thousand people will die in the Cascadia earthquake and tsunami. Another twenty-seven thousand will be injured, and the agency expects that it will need to provide shelter for a million displaced people, and food and water for another two and a half million. “This is one time that I’m hoping all the science is wrong, and it won’t happen for another thousand years,” Murphy says.

In fact, the science is robust, and one of the chief scientists behind it is Chris Goldfinger. Thanks to work done by him and his colleagues, we now know that the odds of the big Cascadia earthquake happening in the next fifty years are roughly one in three. The odds of the very big one are roughly one in ten. Even those numbers do not fully reflect the danger—or, more to the point, how unprepared the Pacific Northwest is to face it. The truly worrisome figures in this story are these: Thirty years ago, no one knew that the Cascadia subduction zone had ever produced a major earthquake. Forty-five years ago, no one even knew it existed.


I think you're going to see a lot of different United States of America over the next three, four, or eight years. - President Donald J. Trump
 

7/15/2015 10:10 am  #2


Re: So long Seattle.....(.....sometime in the next 50 years)

I guess then the quesiton then become knowing this (and assuming it is realistic), how WOULD you prepare for something like this ??  

It staggers the imagination. 


 


"Do not confuse motion and progress, A rocking horse keeps moving but does not make any progress"
 
 

7/15/2015 1:06 pm  #3


Re: So long Seattle.....(.....sometime in the next 50 years)

tennyson wrote:

I guess then the quesiton then become knowing this (and assuming it is realistic), how WOULD you prepare for something like this ??  

It staggers the imagination. 


 

Me, I'd move out. At least to the east of I-5

But on an macro level, I'd start putting policies in place for all new construction meet Japanese levels of "quake-proofing". I wouldn't put new schools in the expected tsunami zone. Basically, just do everything you can to make people as safe as possible with this new knowledge.
 


I think you're going to see a lot of different United States of America over the next three, four, or eight years. - President Donald J. Trump
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