Hillary Clinton’s Appeal Survives Scrutiny, Poll Says

By JONATHAN MARTIN and MEGAN THEE-BRENAN
MAY 5, 2015


Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to have initially weathered a barrage of news about her use of a private email account when she was secretary of state and the practices of her family’s foundation, an indication that she is starting her second presidential bid with an unusual durability among Democratic voters.

Americans now view Mrs. Clinton more favorably and more see her as a strong leader than they did earlier in the year, despite weeks of scrutiny about her ethics, a New York Times/CBS News poll has found. And nearly nine in 10 Democrats say the nation is ready to elect a woman president.

Republican voters showed the most openness to considering Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and former Govs. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Jeb Bush of Florida among their party’s presidential contenders, the survey found.

Mrs. Clinton remains a polarizing figure — nearly the same percentage of Americans view her positively as negatively — but her favorability rating has improved by nine percentage points since the disclosure in late March that she did not use a government email account as secretary of state.

And the number of Americans who think Mrs. Clinton has strong qualities of leadership has risen by eight percentage points, to 65 percent from 57 percent, in that period. Still, Mrs. Clinton begins this campaign with fewer voters saying she possesses such qualities than did in July 2007, near the outset of her first presidential bid.

Mrs. Clinton has one primary opponent, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and more Democrats are likely to enter the race, but her party seems particularly unbothered by questions relating to the emails and to the foundation that she, her husband and their daughter oversee.

While roughly 48 percent of Americans say Mrs. Clinton is honest and trustworthy, about four of five Democrats think she has those traits — and about the same numbers of Democrats say she shares the values most Americans try to live by.

Fifty-two percent of Democrats said they knew nothing or very little about the Clinton Foundation, and only 10 percent said foreign donations to the foundation affected Mrs. Clinton’s decisions while she was the nation’s top diplomat. Just 9 percent of Democratic voters said they would not consider voting for Mrs. Clinton.

”I think the whole thing is political and it’s going to wash away eventually,” Herbert Levengard, 83, a Democratic retiree from Maryland, said in a follow-up interview. “There are always going to be people who mess around and look for things to yell about, but I don’t care.”

Mrs. Clinton is also helped in her own party by the enduring popularity of former President Bill Clinton: Seventy-six percent of Democrats have a favorable view of him, and only 4 percent view him unfavorably.

Democrats also assume that Mr. Clinton — who memorably said in his 1992 presidential bid that he and Mrs. Clinton represented “two for the price of one” — would play a substantial role were Mrs. Clinton to win the White House. Seven in 10 Democratic voters said he would have a great deal or some influence on Mrs. Clinton if she became president.

If Democrats seem largely content with the prospect of another Clinton in the White House, Republicans do not seem quite as certain about electing a third member of the Bush family president.

Nearly three-quarters of Republican voters view George W. Bush favorably, but almost 70 percent have not yet formed an opinion of his brother Jeb, a likely presidential candidate.

The Republican primary is largely unformed, with many Republicans indicating openness to a variety of candidates in a large and still growing field.

There is positive news for Jeb Bush, though. Forty-nine percent of conservative Republican voters think his stance on the issues is about right.

While Mr. Bush has faced questions about whether he is conservative enough to win a Republican primary, only 22 percent of Republican voters said his views were not conservative enough. Further, 60 percent of Republican voters said having the right experience was more important in a presidential candidate, while only 27 percent said they thought offering fresh ideas was more valuable.

What could also help Mr. Bush — along with the other governors or former governors seeking the G.O.P. nomination — is that 73 percent of Republican voters said they preferred candidates with experience outside Washington.

“I would really prefer a candidate who has been a governor,” said Vinton Ernest, an 85-year-old Republican retiree from Las Vegas. “Running a state is just as difficult as running a government. It’s just multiplied when you’re running the country.”

Still, Mr. Rubio, 43, a first-term senator, seems to have more room to gain in popularity than Mr. Huckabee or Mr. Bush: Only 17 percent of Republicans said they would not consider supporting him, while 26 percent said they would not back Mr. Huckabee and 23 percent ruled out supporting Mr. Bush.

Republican voters were least resistant to Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin: Only 13 percent said they would not consider voting for him. At the opposite extreme, 42 percent of Republicans said they would not consider voting for Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey.

Over all, Democrats enter the next presidential campaign with a better image than Republicans. Forty-three percent of Americans said they had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party while only 29 percent said the same of the Republican Party.

But as Democrats seek to retain the White House for a third consecutive term, many Americans are dissatisfied with the country’s direction. Sixty-three percent of Americans said the country had gotten off track, and 66 percent said the economy was growing worse or staying the same.

The candidates will make their case to an increasingly polarized electorate: Two-thirds of Democrats support legalizing same-sex marriage, while about the same percentage of Republicans do not think same-sex marriages should be legal.

In addition, 69 percent of Republicans say small-business owners who provide wedding-related services should be able to refuse, on the basis of their religious belief, such services to same-sex couples. But 58 percent of Democrats think the businesses should be required to provide those services.

On immigration, 46 percent of Republicans said illegal immigrants should be required to leave the United States, while only 16 percent of Democrats said the same. And while 71 percent of Democrats said illegal immigrants should be able to stay in the country and apply for citizenship, just 38 percent of Republicans said they should be allowed to remain in America and pursue citizenship.

The poll was conducted by telephone, on landlines and cellphones nationwide, from April 30 to May 3 with 1,027 adults, of whom 868 were registered to vote. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for all adults and registered voters.

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