Tarnation wrote:

The higher the overall DJIA, the less significant the multi hundred point swings.

Focus to the percentages, not the raw numbers.....and stay in for the long haul.

Understood and I never DO bail out completely. 

But, you do understand that YTD even with the last couple of up days , we are STILL DOWN 6.39 % YTD. 
https://www.macrotrends.net/2505/dow-jones-ytd-performance

I am reminded that the last time we had these wild swings in the markets, it did not end well (2008). 


 

All of us who have 401Ks are happy that the markets do well. 

The GOP seems to be really hitting this as of late and for sure it is a good thing, BUT when you look at what the averages and medians (more important because it is the middle point of ALL holders), it is apparent that most people do not have a tremendous amount in 401Ks (which is truly sad for those who do not have pensions and that is their only retirement source other than SS). 

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/the-average-401k-balance-by-age

Point of above is that although some of us may have accumulated a goodly sum and the markets fluctuations can mean big bucks, it is not the case with the vast majority. 

One thing that IS good at this time is that unemployment is at a historic low meaning IF you want a job you can find it. So people don't have to worry about finding a job. The bad news, however, is that as in the past many years that wage gains have basically been eaten up by inflation so many are no further ahead now than in the past. Also the shortage of workers has not generally meant higher wages and runaway inflation which is kind of an anomaly. 

GDP is good but not remarkable considering the huge give away to big business. It was supposed to result in dramatic GDP, but that has not been the case. The following chart shows GDP of the past 8+ years and we are seeing a good economy but not one supercharged. When you combine this with the current Admin running up an additional $1 Trillion in deficit, there are less and less options for doing things. 

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

I hope that the markets CAN continue onward, but there are a few big storm clouds on the horizon - one is corporate debt which is at an all time high (and much of it coming due in the next couple of years) and student debt which is at an all time high as well. 

Here is the info on corporate debt
https://www.investopedia.com/why-the-corporate-debt-bubble-may-burst-sooner-than-you-think-4587446

On a personal level, I am still hanging in there with the markets but have tried to adjust to slightly more conservative posture. 

 

Well, if we are going to use the stock market to judge if a president is doing a good job, let’s be consistent. The market was up about 228% during the Clinton years, making him nearly twice the president that Reagan was.

Somehow I don’t see many conservatives agreeing with that.

Last edited by Goose (5/13/2019 9:06 am)