The New Exchange » So how do you feel about the tax bill that will likely soon become law

tennyson · 12/02/2017 11:30 am

Overall I was hoping it would NOT pass as written, but looks like it is going to make it.

Here is how I see it.

Positives

1. For many it will be a reduction in the tax bite, BUT the reduction will be not a game changer for most and will actually GO AWAY in a number of years.
2. It MAY help some startups decide to open a business and some marginal small businesses to stay in business
3 The POTENTIAL for the tax decrease for businesses has inflated the stock market and has helped investors to see their portfolios increase (which also helps a lot of 401K balances). The question is whether this is permanent or just emotion. IF earnings don't generally improve don't expect the market increases to last. This market uptick COULD be a good positive for those invested. The question here is just what type of person this primarily benefits. Again I would think the more wealthy that have already had the money to invest in their future or current retirements.

Negatives

1 It was rammed through in a last second effort and has many unintended and unknown side agends buried in it.
2. It WILL increase the deficit and pass along more future debt to our heirs.
3. It is primary for business and the wealthy with a PERMANENT almost halving of their business taxes as well as AMT and Estate Tax changes that ONLY benefit the wealthy.
4. The tax cuts for non-business are only temporary.
5. It will force many (likely millions) to abandon their health insurance and drive them back to using the Emergency rooms which just winds up putting the bill back on the people who DO have insurance.

Unknowns

1. It was touted to bring back offshore money to the US. That remains to be seen.
2. It is touted to increase wages. I see NO compelling reason for companies to pay more just because of the tax cut.
3. Will companies use the extra monies that they will save to further automate ? If so, it could well have a negative effect on employment rather than a positive. l

Well, that's my 2 cents. For me personally I likely as a retired person with pension, SS, and investments from 401K I will see marginal tax relief and an uptick at least temporarily in my investment portfolio.

Last edited by tennyson (12/02/2017 11:35 am)

Just Fred · 12/02/2017 12:11 pm

Good observations, Tenny. I, like you, remain skeptical. Sounds like part of the 'trickle down' crap that really hasn't worked for the last 30+ years.

Rongone · 12/02/2017 12:49 pm

I am not comfortable with any legislation that is developed behind closed doors in a totally biased, unilateral, partisan way. This piece of legislation was basically written by lobbyists representing large corporations without input by opposing points of view or the expertise that could be offered by experienced economic experts. I oppose the fact that the legislation, as analyzed by most unbiased groups or individuals that have expertise in economics and finance, favors large corporations and wealthy individuals. I am appalled at the fact that certain elected representatives gleefully tout this bill as beneficial to the middle class when independent analysts detail that middle class tax relief will be meager and temporary whereas corporate tax breaks will be permanent. There is not verifiable evidence that this bill will increase productivity, increase wages, nor bolster economic output, nor provide middle class job creation, and it really does not simplify the tax code. What analysts do agree on is that this plan will significantly increase the national debt, increase the cost of higher education, increase Medicare premiums, and will cut social security benefits.

The only thing this poorly thought out plan has done is provide one political party with a perceived “win” in finally passing some legislation in an otherwise do nothing year. The people that voted in favor of this bill have put their party, their donors, big corporations, and the wealthiest 2% of the population ahead of the vast majority of their constituents.

I wrote, e-mailed, and phoned Senator Toomey prior to this vote and after he cast his vote to let him know about my concerns and feelings about this bill. Needless to say, Mr. Toomey will not be getting my vote when he comes up for re-election due to his participation in this fiasco of “tax cut and jobs” bill.

Goose · 12/02/2017 12:52 pm

It will increase the debt by over $1 Trillion.

While many people will get a tax cut, selling the bill as a middle class tax cut is a fraud.
80% of the benefits will go to the very rich and corporations.
And Millions will see a tax increase.

Myself, I suspect that any small decrease in my rate will be off-set by the loss of SALT deductions.
Don't see it changing my life at all.

Politically, I see it as an albatross hanging from republican necks in 2018.

Tarnation · 12/02/2017 2:36 pm

Horrible for middle to upper-middle individuals in high tax states like NY, MA, NJ, PA, OH,. MI....no real change in tax bracket rate coupled with fewer deductions will result in substantially higher taxes.

The GOP decided to write off the Rust Belt for at least one generation. They confirmed every stereotype that their concern for individual constituents is a falsehood and farce.

Looks like I'm going to be voting Libertarian for the foreseeable future.

TheLagerLad · 12/04/2017 11:18 am

For me, it does appear that the tax bill will be a benefit.

But with the Senate version, the individual reductions end in 8 years while the corporate tax rates remain permanent.

It blows up that deficit.

But here is what kills me. The GOP knows that government revenues will drop and the deficit will explode. So they are going to have to attack Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid. This means less money for the social safety net. This means less surety in Social Security. It means a higher retirement age.

And they are going to have to do it before the coming Dem wave in 2018. And if they don't, then we're back into gridlock and the tax cuts stay and the status quo remains with entitlement programs and we jut go deeper into debt.

And rather then have a robust debate about all of this, the GOP just rammed it through.

This is no way to run a country.

Tarnation · 12/04/2017 11:46 am

Good tool for assessing how you'll fare here:

http://taxplancalculator.com/

Just Fred · 12/04/2017 1:02 pm

I checked out the site that Tarnation offered up. I worked through it and discovered the bill would benefit me personally, but I'm not the one I'm concerned about. It's about those less fortunate than me.

Tarnation · 12/04/2017 3:39 pm

Re: Those less fortunate.

One of the unintended consequences of the bill's higher "standard deduction" is a further dis-incentive for charitable giving. With a higher SD fewer taxpayers will be able to itemize. Some will soon figure out "why bother to give $1000.00 to the United Way through a payroll deduction if the IRS won't let that 'count' and is assuming that I'm giving $12,000.00?"

Bob Woods had a great OpEd piece about that in the Sunday print edition of the Daily Record.

tennyson · 12/04/2017 9:39 pm

Very interesting that it seems like most of us will benefit directly from some form of tax cut and also perhaps because of the markets as well that it seems like most of us are NOT in favor of the bill itself. Personally I just see it as one more time that we as a nation are NOT forward looking but only living in today. Sooner or later the hens WILL come home to roost. I am hoping for the sake of future generations that we somehow are wrong, but I don't think so.

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12/02/2017 11:30 am #1

So how do you feel about the tax bill that will likely soon become law

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