Trump, Changing Course on Taiwan, Gives China an Upper Hand


BEIJING — By backing down in a telephone call with China’s president on his promise to review the status of Taiwan, President Trump may have averted a confrontation with America’s most powerful rival.

But in doing so, he handed China a victory and sullied his reputation with its leader, Xi Jinping, as a tough negotiator who ought to be feared, analysts said.

“Trump lost his first fight with Xi and he will be looked at as a paper tiger,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, in Beijing, and an adviser to China’s State Council. “This will be interpreted in China as a great success, achieved by Xi’s approach of dealing with him.”

Mr. Trump’s reversal on Taiwan is likely to reinforce the views of those in China who see him as merely the latest American president to come into office talking tough on China, only to bend eventually to economic reality and adopt more cooperative policies. That could mean more difficult negotiations with Beijing on trade, North Korea and other issues.

At the same time, the Chinese leadership will view statements by Mr. Trump with even greater skepticism. “Even though Trump has said he will support the ‘One China’ policy, China cannot fully trust him,” said Yan Xuetong, dean of the school of international relations at Tsinghua University, in Beijing. “Even his own people don’t trust him.”

China’s official reaction to the telephone call, in which Mr. Trump affirmed that America would abide by the longstanding policy, was polite, even upbeat.

“The conversation was very cordial,” Lu Kang, the spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, said at a regular news briefing on Friday. “The One China principle is the political foundation of China-U.S. relations.”

Under that policy, the United States recognized a single Chinese government in Beijing and severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

American leadership was damaged by Mr. Trump staking out a position and then stepping back, said Hugh White, a professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University and the author of “The China Choice,” a book that argues that the United States should share power in the Pacific region with China.

“The Chinese will see him as weak,” Mr. White said of Mr. Trump. “He has reinforced the impression in Beijing that Trump is not serious about managing the U.S.-China relationship.”

Mr. Shi said that Beijing had chosen to remain firm and patient with Mr. Trump, and that approach had paid off.

Even though many other world leaders had spoken to the new American president by phone since his inauguration on Jan. 20, Mr. Xi had refused to talk to Mr. Trump until he was sure that the American president would give what turned out to be a concession — an affirmation of the One China policy, Mr. Shi said.

Mr. Trump put himself in a corner by questioning the status of Taiwan, an issue that the Chinese have regarded as nonnegotiable since President Jimmy Carter put the One China policy into effect in 1979, Mr. Shi added.


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