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12/23/2016 9:10 am  #1


How will president Trump deal with U.S. debt?

If this is any indication, it's not going to be like his campaign rhetoric:


Trump May Have a $300 Million Conflict of Interest With Deutsche Bank


For years, Donald Trump has used a powerful tool when dealing with bankers: his personal guarantee.

Now that guarantee -- employed to extract better terms on hundreds of millions of dollars of loans to the Trump Organization -- is at the center of a delicate loan-restructuring discussion at Deutsche Bank AG, which is under investigation on several fronts by the U.S. Department of Justice.

The bank is trying to restructure some of Trump’s roughly $300 million debt as part of an attempt to reduce any conflict of interest between the loan and his presidency, according to a person familiar with the matter. Normally, the removal of a personal pledge might lead to more-stringent terms. But there is little normal about this interaction. Trump’s attorney general will inherit an investigation of Deutsche Bank related to stock trades for rich clients in Russia -- where Trump says he plans to improve relations -- and may have to deal with a possible multibillion-dollar penalty to the bank related to mortgage-bond investigations .

Whatever terms a restructured loan might include, they will reflect the complex new relationship spawned between Germany’s largest bank and its highest-profile client. Ethicists say this concerns them.

‘Looks Terrible’

“When you have political appointees making decisions about banks that the president owes a lot of money to, it looks terrible,” said Richard Painter, a law professor at the University of Minnesota who was the chief ethics lawyer for President George W. Bush. “The U.S. government is dealing with regulatory and criminal issues with the big banks all the time, and if he owes them a lot of money, there might be an incentive to favor less regulation and less enforcement for the banks.”

More from Bloomberg.com: Obama Said to Use 1953 Law to Restrict Offshore Oil Drilling

Deutsche Bank declined to comment. Alan Garten, general counsel of the Trump Organization, said the loans are modest in the context of Trump’s multibillion-dollar empire, and the effort to shift away from a personal guarantee isn’t significant because the loans were structured to become standard debt eventually, following completion of the projects.

Read more: A QuickTake Q&A on Trump’s many conflicts

The scramble to restructure is the latest chapter in Trump’s fraught relationship with Deutsche Bank, one of the few financial institutions on Wall Street that still does deals with a man long known as a publicity-seeking and unconventional real-estate developer who didn’t hesitate to sue his lender eight years ago.

Deutsche Bank also lends to Trump’s extended family, including his son-in-law Jared Kushner. Weeks before the election, the bank refinanced most of the $370 million of debt against retail spaces Kushner’s company owns in midtown Manhattan.

Angry Bankers

Trump’s dealings with Wall Street stretch back decades to his attempt to build an Atlantic City casino empire. That badly timed push forced him to renegotiate with creditors when he couldn’t pay back billions of dollars in loans. His major backers in that era included Citbank, Chase Manhattan Bank and Bankers Trust -- a bank that was acquired by Deutsche Bank in 1999 -- and the debacle left a trail of angry lenders.

Deutsche Bank’s relationship with Trump actually predates its Bankers Trust purchase. In 1998, a small group of its real-estate bankers led by Mike Offit underwrote a $125-million loan for renovations on Trump’s building at 40 Wall Street. Trump showed up at Offit’s office, his reputation badly bruised. Deutsche Bank’s fledgling property business -- in operation for only a year at the time -- was the only group willing to take on Trump, Offit said in an interview.

“I had one way to succeed -- that was to make this thing big and profitable,” said Offit, who is now retired and has written a novel about Wall Street. “If I was super conservative and wasn’t willing to do some unusual stuff, how was I going to compete?”

Best Client

The bank’s real-estate business became one of the most active lenders in Manhattan. Trump was his best client, Offit said, always professional and well-versed in the details of his projects. In the 1990s, Offit and a team led by loan officer Eric Schwartz financed the construction of Trump World Tower on the eastern edge of Manhattan and backed his failed bid to redevelop the site of the New York Coliseum.

When Offit left Deutsche Bank in 1999, Schwartz became a linchpin for the relationship with Trump, including his attempt to buy out a partner at the General Motors Building in 2001, according to people involved in the deals. Schwartz, who left Deutsche in 2009, declined to comment.

In 2005, the bank approved a $640 million construction loan so Trump could build his name-sake tower in Chicago. The tower, with dozens of multimillion-dollar condos, broke ground at the height of the real-estate boom. As the project neared completion, the financial crisis hit, sending the global real-estate market crashing. And when part of the loan came due, rather than pay it, Trump sued a lending consortium led by Deutsche Bank for $3 billion.

Force Majeure

His suit argued that the financial crisis was equivalent to an earthquake, triggering a “force majeure” clause, which allows for a payback extension in extraordinary circumstances. Deutsche Bank countersued, claiming Trump owed a $40 million payment, which was a personal guarantee on the debt. The two later settled and, surprisingly, continued doing business together.

Today, the president-elect owes about $300 million to the bank, nearly half of his outstanding debt, according to a July analysis by Bloomberg. That figure includes a $170-million loan Trump took out to finish his hotel in Washington . He also has two mortgages against his Trump National Doral Miami resort and a loan against his tower in Chicago. All four debts come due in 2023 and 2024. Garten said the Chicago loan no longer has Trump’s personal guarantee because the project has been completed.

The most recent batch of loans originated out of Deutsche Bank’s private-wealth management unit, where Trump deals primarily with Rosemary Vrablic, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Vrablic joined the group in 2006 after stints at other companies, including Bank of America. Her other clients include Herbert Simon, owner of the Indiana Pacers basketball team. Simon didn’t return calls seeking comment.

Largely Unknown

Vrablic, who is largely unknown on Wall Street outside of private-banking circles, was thrust in the spotlight earlier this year after Trump uttered her name in public .

The loans, before restructuring, appear to be a good deal for both sides. Trump locked in a low interest rate, around 2 percent over the benchmark, and has relative freedom to do what he wants with the money. In return, Trump personally guaranteed the loans.

As the bank scrambles to restructure the loans, it has options. It could remove the personal guarantee, which could require increasing the interest rate or laying out restrictions on how the money is used. Trump also could put assets such as stocks and bonds into an escrow account, which would effectively act as the guarantee.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank has been negotiating a multibillion-dollar settlement with the Department of Justice for mishandling the sale of mortgage bonds to other banks. If not settled by then, the department will be overseen by a political appointee of Trump’s after January 20th.




I think I'll try that with my bank: "just give me the money . . . I personally guarantee it"


Yeah . . . That'll work !

 

12/23/2016 9:22 am  #2


Re: How will president Trump deal with U.S. debt?

I expect there will be a lot of this. Some in the past have set up "blind trusts" to avoid the same issues. The way it looks like Mr Trump is going after this is bound to raise questions. 


"Do not confuse motion and progress, A rocking horse keeps moving but does not make any progress"
 
 

12/23/2016 1:27 pm  #3


Re: How will president Trump deal with U.S. debt?

Looks like Trump's trade policies aren't going to be too beneficial for our economy either . . . despite his campaign rhetoric and 3:00 a.m. POTUS tweets from the penthouse bathroom in Trump Tower.


By Rodrigo Campos
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The year-end stocks rally on the heels of the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president was built on expectations of reduced regulations, big tax cuts and a large fiscal stimulus.

Now signs are emerging from the Trump camp that harsher trade policies that could jeopardize the honeymoon are likely in the offing, and investors would be well advised to give those prospects more weight when gauging how much further an already pricey market has to run.

By naming China hawk Peter Navarro as head of a newly formed White House National Trade Council, the incoming administration is signaling Trump's campaign promises to revisit trade deals and even impose a tax on all imports are very much alive.

Among the policies favored by Navarro and Trump's pick for commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, who has the president-elect's ear on a range of economic issues, is a so-called border adjustment tax that is also included in House Speaker Paul Ryan's "Better Way" tax-reform blueprint.

If implemented, economists at Deutsche Bank estimate the tax could send inflation far above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target and drive a 15 percent surge in the dollar.

Analysts calculate that, all else being equal, a 5 percent increase in the dollar translates into about a 3 percent negative earnings revision for the S&P 500 (.SPX) and a half-point drag on gross domestic product growth. The dollar index (.DXY) has already gained more than 5 percent since the U.S. election.

Harsher trade policies may not cause a full economic slowdown, "but I'd expect a localized recession in manufacturing and smaller gains in factory employment as well," said Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

He said the border tax could trigger retaliation, pouring uncertainty into the market.

"Even if the drafters of the legislation have pure intentions, other countries could use this as a pretext for propping up or subsidizing their own favorite industries."

TOP ECONOMY RISK

Stocks have rallied broadly since Nov. 8, with the S&P 500 advancing by 5.7 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) surging nearly 9 percent to brush up against the 20,000 mark. Some sectors, such as banks (.SPXBK), have shot up nearly 25 percent in the post-election run.

U.S. equities have gotten substantially pricier from a valuation vantage as well. The forward price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 has risen by a full point since Election Day, from 16.6 to 17.6, Thomson Reuters data shows. That makes stocks about 17 percent more expensive, relative to their earnings potential, than their long-term average multiple of around 15.

Small caps have gotten pricier still. The forward multiple on the Russell 2000 (.RUT) has risen to 26 from 22 on Nov. 8, up 18 percent, while the index price has climbed 14 percent.

S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise 12.5 percent next year, according to Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research estimates. Anything that impedes companies from achieving that target, such as a bump from a trade spat or further dollar appreciation in anticipation of new trade barriers, would undermine equity valuations.

In the latest Reuters poll of U.S. primary dealers, economists at Wall Street’s top banks cited Trump’s evolving trade policies over other factors, such as fiscal policy, a strong dollar and higher interest rates, as the greatest risk to the near-term economic outlook.

The idea of a tax on imports "should alarm people," according to Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading in Greenwich, Connecticut.

"If we do have a trade war that's going to be a major negative" for stocks, he said, adding that the upward momentum in equities, alongside the lack of participation due to the upcoming holidays, have so far prevented a repricing but "we could cap the rally here, that could very well happen."

O'Rourke said technology, a sector that represents the globalization trade, would be among the hardest hit by taxing imports.

Deutsche Bank's auto sector equities analyst estimated the border tax could slam other industries that rely on global supply chains, with the cost of a new car, for instance, jumping by as much as 10 percent.

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