Offline
PSU needs to win the Big Ten Championship and either Washington or Clemson to lose to have a chance. I'm not sure Michigan is definitely in over PSU, it is close. In its favor Michigan did beat PSU in the head to head and has beaten PSU, Colorado and Wisconsin and lost in a close overtime to OSU. PSU has the fact that it would be Division and Conference Champs beat the #2 team in the country (OSU), also beat Wisconsin and also won 9 games in a row. Plus Michigan has only won 2 road games this year against lowly Rutgers and MSU.
In regards to expanding the playoffs, I think it is a bad idea. In my opinion, what makes college football so great is every game matters so much. In the NFL, you can go 9-7 and win the Super Bowl, but in college football you lose 2 games and you are almost certainly done. If they expand, they will water down the regular season.
Offline
Here is the SBNation College Football blog's take on Penn State's chances....
If PSU wins: No one knows. Look at the same stuff for Penn State vs. Ohio State, which only matter if the committee suddenly decides PSU is OSU's overall equal:
PSU would have a conference-title advantage and head-to-head advantage over Ohio State.
If PSU beats UW, PSU will have gone 5-1 against common opponents. But Ohio State will have gone 6-0 and could have about a 100-point advantage in scoring margin against common opponents, thanks to a 62-3 beatdown (yes, OSU had two of those) of Maryland and a 49-10 Penn State loss to Michigan.
PSU would be 2-2 against the current top 25 and 7-2 against bowl teams. OSU is 3-1 against the top nine and 8-1 against bowl teams.
So the two teams would split the committee's tiebreaker things. Since OSU entered the weekend five spots higher, I think OSU would finish higher. PSU's a bigger threat to OSU, though.
Either way, a Big Ten champion PSU would either be in the Playoff or the Rose. UW could fall to the Orange or Cotton.
And I am 100% against an 8 team playoff.
First of all, how long did it take us to get away from the god-awful BCS system just to get to a four team playoff? Second, the regular season is better when every game counts. Third, as a logistical matter, the regular season doesn't end until Dec 10 (with the Army-Navy game). True, Army and Navy don't usually have any input in the playoff picture, but they could and that's enough to not start a playoff that early in December.
Offline
Just Fred wrote:
Let's go to an 8-team playoff. So some might argue that a team ranked 9th doesn't make it and deserves an 8th ranking. Ok, I get that. But, what the hell, a team ranked lower than 8th probably isn't going to be win a national championship. A team ranked 4th or 5th might have a shot.
So picture a quarter-final, a semi-final, and a championship final over three straight weekends. Wow! Couldn't get any better than that for me!
December 10 - quarter finals
December 17 - semi-finals
January 1 - finals on New Years Day
I think that this is an outstanding idea.
The key will be getting buy-ins from the existing bowls.
There is a lot of money at stake. Maybe not right, but so.