This forum is hosted for free by Boardhost. Create your own free forum!
1 of 1- Common Sense
- Exchanger
Offline - Registered: 2/16/2015
- Posts: 3,258
Clinton Might Not Be the Nominee
Clinton Might Not Be the Nominee
ByDouglas E. Schoen
Mr. Schoen served as a political adviser and pollster for President Bill Clinton, 1994-2000
Read the full editorial here:
A Sanders win in California would turbocharge the mounting Democratic unease about her viability. 
There is now more than a theoretical chance that Hillary Clinton may not be the Democratic nominee for president.How could that happen, given that her nomination has been considered a sure thing by virtually everyone in the media and in the party itself? Consider the possibilities.
The inevitability behind Mrs. Clinton’s nomination will be in large measure eviscerated if she loses the June 7 California primary to Bernie Sanders. That could well happen.A recent PPIC poll shows Mrs. Clinton with a 2% lead over Mr. Sanders, and a Fox News survey found the same result. Even a narrow win would give him 250 pledged delegates or more—a significant boost. California is clearly trending to Mr. Sanders, and the experience in recent open primaries has been that the Vermont senator tends to underperform in pre-election surveys and over-perform on primary and caucus days, thanks to the participation of new registrants and young voters.
To this end, data from mid-May show that there were nearly 1.5 million newly registered Democratic voters in California since Jan. 1. That’s a 218% increase in Democratic voter registrations compared with the same period in 2012, a strongly encouraging sign for Mr. Sanders. A Sanders win in California would powerfully underscore Mrs. Clinton’s weakness as a candidate in the general election. Democratic superdelegates—chosen by the party establishment and overwhelmingly backing Mrs. Clinton, 543-44—would seriously question whether they should continue to stand behind her candidacy.
“We hold these truths to be self-evident,” former vice president Biden said during a campaign event in Texas on Monday. "All men and women created by — you know, you know, the thing.”
- Goose
- Cogito ergo sum
Offline
- Registered: 1/29/2015
- Posts: 13,427
Re: Clinton Might Not Be the Nominee
What a strange article.
I hate to ruin Mr Schoen's day, but,,,,,
In California, site of a major June 7 presidential primary contest, Hillary Clinton is leading rival candidate Bernie Sanders by 13 points, according to a new poll. She also got the support of the Golden State's governor.
But hey, let's assume that Schoen is correct and Clinton's lead is only 2 points. The take away from that is Clinton might not be the nominee? Seriously?
Let's say that things flip and Sanders wins the narrow victory that Schoen envisions. He would get, By the author's accounting 250 pledged delegates. OK.
California has 475 pledged delegates at stake. That would mean that under this scenario Clinton would come out of California with 225 delegates. A difference of 25 delgates. That is the earthquake Schoen Predicts?
That would boost Clinton's pledged delegate count (NOT superdelegates) to 1994.
Sanders would increase to 1751.
Enter New Jersey with its 142 delegates.
Clinton leads sanders in the Quinnipiac poll has Clinton up by 14.
So, while a narrow loss in California would be a problem for Clinton, she is still well on track for the nomination with a 3 million vote lead as well as a lead in pledged delegates.
Mr. Schoen isn't much at math. But he is one of the great writers of fiction of 2016.
But, please Hillary haters. Keep wishing!
Last edited by Goose (6/01/2016 8:13 am)
We live in a time in which decent and otherwise sensible people are surrendering too easily to the hectoring of morons or extremists.
- TheLagerLad
- Exchange Beer Snob
Offline
- From: Bucks County, PA
- Registered: 1/29/2015
- Posts: 2,055
Re: Clinton Might Not Be the Nominee
A new poll came out this morning that has Hillary up 18 points in California. The one poll that came out late last week that showed a neck and neck race between Clinton and Sanders was an outlier.
Like her, hate here, or indifferent, it's clear that Hillary will be the Dem nominee.
I think you're going to see a lot of different United States of America over the next three, four, or eight years. - President Donald J. Trump
- tennyson
- Exchanger
Offline
- Registered: 2/06/2015
- Posts: 6,654
Re: Clinton Might Not Be the Nominee
One more of my favorite adjectives that are used by writers .... MIGHT ! 
"Do not confuse motion and progress, A rocking horse keeps moving but does not make any progress"