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After a series of assaults, thefts, groping incidents, and 2 possible rapes on New Years Eve in Cologne, Germany coming from mostly foreigners and refugees, tensions in Germany has risen over the past several days.
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I think that Germany is in some serious trouble. Angela Merkel's heart is most certainly in the right place, but her immigration policies may very well be folly.
Last year Germany admitted a million refugees, and Merkel recently rejected a proposal to limit refugees to 200,000 in 2016.
I am a supporter of helping my fellow man, and support admitting refugees. However, with the current migration, there are huge risks. The issue isn’t just that immigrants are arriving in the hundreds of thousands rather than the tens of thousands. It’s that a huge proportion of them are teenage and twentysomething men.
In Germany, over 50 percent of all asylum applicants in 2015 were men. Among the category of unaccompanied minors, boys outnumber girls nearly 10 to 1. This will have immediate implications for civil order. Men without a family structure are unrooted. And many of these men carry assumptions about women’s roles that are diametrically opposed to the values of contemporary Europe.
Change in attitudes comes slowly. When immigration proceeds at a modest pace, and the immigrants are intact families, there’s time for assimilation. That’s why many of the Turkish and North African immigrants who arrived in Germany and France decades ago are reasonably Europeanized today.
But if you add a million (or millions) of people, most of them young men, in one short period, you get a very different kind of shift. Family unification in a new land offers promise, and men with wives and children become good citizens with a stake in society. In other words, they are less likely to grope revelers or seek the solidarity of radicalism than are isolated young men with no family.
Think of this as well. Germany's population is about 82 million. But their twenty-something population is only about 10 million. Bring in a million mostly young men a year for a while and the under 40 population of Germany could quickly become 30-40% Middle eastern or North African immigrants.
I'm not one to get hysterical about the risk of the "Islamification" of Europe. My concern is this:
I don't believe that an aging, secularized, mostly homogeneous society is likely to peacefully absorb a migration of that size and that scale of cultural difference.
This is a recipe for destabilization. It promises increasing polarization among natives and new arrivals alike. It threatens BOTH a spike in terrorism AND a rebirth of 1930s-style political violence.
Germany needs to slow it down.
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Goose wrote:
I think that Germany is in some serious trouble. Angela Merkel's heart is most certainly in the right place, but her immigration policies may very well be folly.
Last year Germany admitted a million refugees, and Merkel recently rejected a proposal to limit refugees to 200,000 in 2016.
I am a supporter of helping my fellow man, and support admitting refugees. However, with the current migration, there are huge risks. The issue isn’t just that immigrants are arriving in the hundreds of thousands rather than the tens of thousands. It’s that a huge proportion of them are teenage and twentysomething men.
In Germany, over 50 percent of all asylum applicants in 2015 were men. Among the category of unaccompanied minors, boys outnumber girls nearly 10 to 1. This will have immediate implications for civil order. Men without a family structure are unrooted. And many of these men carry assumptions about women’s roles that are diametrically opposed to the values of contemporary Europe.
Change in attitudes comes slowly. When immigration proceeds at a modest pace, and the immigrants are intact families, there’s time for assimilation. That’s why many of the Turkish and North African immigrants who arrived in Germany and France decades ago are reasonably Europeanized today.
But if you add a million (or millions) of people, most of them young men, in one short period, you get a very different kind of shift. Family unification in a new land offers promise, and men with wives and children become good citizens with a stake in society. In other words, they are less likely to grope revelers or seek the solidarity of radicalism than are isolated young men with no family.
Think of this as well. Germany's population is about 82 million. But their twenty-something population is only about 10 million. Bring in a million mostly young men a year for a while and the under 40 population of Germany could quickly become 30-40% Middle eastern or North African immigrants.
I'm not one to get hysterical about the risk of the "Islamification" of Europe. My concern is this:
I don't believe that an aging, secularized, mostly homogeneous society is likely to peacefully absorb a migration of that size and that scale of cultural difference.
This is a recipe for destabilization. It promises increasing polarization among natives and new arrivals alike. It threatens BOTH a spike in terrorism AND a rebirth of 1930s-style political violence.
Germany needs to slow it down.
Yes, it appears you found the article written by Ross Douthat in the NY Times about this.
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I often don't agree with Douthat. But, on this he is spot on.
(My apologies to Ross for not citing his piece.)
Immigration on this scale and with this vast a cultural gap is extremely risky.
Merkel and supporters seem to be banking on the influx of young workers invigorating a European society suffering from low birth rates across the continent. And, I truly admire the altruistic aspect of this.
But, I think that they have really neglected to see the down side. Small groups of immigrants can get assimilated into existing society. Huge waves of immigrants, on the other hand transform that society. For better or worse. Even under the best of circumstances, this is inherently destabilizing.
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Looks like the number of attacks is even larger than first reported.
Scale of Cologne New Year Attacks Grows as More Complaints Filed