Trump’s Treasury Department is lying about its own analysis of the tax bill


[img]https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/64NL8Pkjae-0nqOBCghrtdpAC-Q=/0x0:3000x2000/920x613/filters:focal(1683x358:2163x838):format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/57801419/872252464.jpg.0.jpg[/img]


It doesn’t involve an inappropriate tweet or casual racism, but Alan Rappeport’s scoop about the Trump administration lying about its own internal analysis of the Republican tax plan deserves to go down as one of the most shocking stories of 2017. And the mild-mannered headline “Ahead of Vote, Promised Treasury Analysis of Tax Bill Proves Elusive” doesn’t come close to doing it justice.

Here’s the issue. For months now, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin has been saying that his team will release a “dynamic” analysis of the Republican tax plan that will reveal its growth-boosting effects to be so incredible that they put deficit worries to rest. On September 28, he even said that his in-house analysis indicated the bill would reduce the deficit by $1 trillion rather than increase it.

That’s never seemed remotely plausible to me, but it’s clear that a lot of Republicans on Capitol Hill are counting on something in that neighborhood coming true to make the plan workable.

Rappeport reports that Mnuchin’s just been making it up:

Mr. Mnuchin has promised that Treasury will release its analysis in full. Yet, just one day before the full Senate prepares to vote on a sweeping tax rewrite, the administration has yet to produce the type of economic analysis that it is citing as a reason to pass the tax cut.

Those inside Treasury’s Office of Tax Policy, which Mr. Mnuchin has credited with running the models, say they have been largely shut out of the process and are not working on the type of detailed analysis that he has mentioned. An economist at the Office of Tax Analysis, who spoke on the condition of anonymity so as not to jeopardize his job, said Treasury had not released a “dynamic” analysis showing that the tax plan would be paid for with economic growth because one did not exist.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/11/30/16719238/treasury-tax-analysis