Trump Reminded Threats Work Differently in Diplomacy Than in Real Estate

During his rise to power, President Trump proved he has a finely honed sense of what threats, intimidation and bluster can accomplish. In recent days, he has received reminders — including from South Korea, Iran and Venezuela — that geopolitics operates with a different set of rules than real estate or political campaigns.

South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, was so alarmed by Mr. Trump’s threat to bring “fire and fury” to the North that he warned on national television on Tuesday that he would never tolerate a unilateral strike against Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile sites because he fears the price his country would pay in lives and property.

In Tehran, President Hassan Rouhani told Parliament that if the United States presses ahead with new economic sanctions, he would end the 2015 nuclear deal. Doing so would grant Mr. Trump one of his greatest wishes. But Mr. Rouhani also promised that if he were forced to pull out of the deal, he would restart Iran’s production of nuclear fuel within “days or hours,” leaving unstated the fact that that would put the country within reach of nuclear weapons.

And in Venezuela, Mr. Trump’s threat that he might use a “military option” to restore democracy has been seized upon by President Nicolás Maduro to rally his dwindling number of supporters against the possibility of an American-led invasion. He warned against imminent attack and called for military exercises, an old trick to distract from an imploding economy and growing isolation.

“Everyone has to join the defense plan, millions of men and women; let’s see how the American imperialists like it,” Mr. Maduro said, announcing two days of exercises next week.

The United States is always an outsize player abroad, its statements often carrying more effect in foreign lands than at home. But Mr. Trump’s use of bald threats and warnings of military intervention have accelerated the laws of unintended consequences.

“No one should be allowed to decide on a military action on the Korean Peninsula without South Korean agreement,” Mr. Moon said, executing exactly the kind of split between Seoul and Washington that Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, has long sought.

His declaration underscored how Mr. Trump’s language, which took White House aides by surprise, is sowing division with an ally whose help would be vital to the success of any American military campaign on the divided peninsula.

South Koreans have seen a lot of tensions with Washington, but they have never seen an American president explicitly threaten the North with talk of “fire and fury like the world has never seen,” or a declaration that American forces are “locked and loaded” for a conflict.

“The Americans had always been an ally who would prevent, not start, war on the Korean Peninsula,” said Kim Ji-woon, a college student attending a rally on Monday in central Seoul that featured a large banner reading, “Trump, shut up!”

“With his trash war talk,” the student said, “Trump makes me wonder what’s the use of the alliance.”


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