Wish I felt as confident as you Flower about Florida.

Real Clear Politics has Florida as a dead heat and the last two polls from Florida, taken by the New York Times and Remington Research has Trump up +3 and +4, respectively. 

Additionally, a Politico story out this morning reports that African American early voting numbers are down substantially from 2012.

Hillary Clinton has a black voter problem in the nation’s biggest battleground state.

After the first full weekend of in-person early voting ended Sunday, African-American turnout failed to meet expectations — or historic precedent — leaving top Democrats and activists fuming or worried that Clinton’s campaign isn’t living up to the hype in Florida.

“They’re not doing enough in the black community. I have been screaming for months about this and nothing changed and now look what’s happening,” said Democratic U.S. Rep. Alcee Hastings, who represents one of South Florida’s largest African-American communities.

Hastings said he told Clinton aide John Podesta on a conference call last week that “you need to plus-up the spending in the African-American community and get out the vote.” Hastings said he was told someone would get back to him. “Nobody did,” he said.

African-Americans traditionally dominate early in-person voting. But they didn’t show in force this weekend. And Hastings said he wasn’t surprised. After Sunday night’s polls closed, black voters accounted for 16 percent of the in-person early vote ballots cast. And that included five previous days of in-person early voting.

But in 2012, in just two days of in-person early voting, blacks cast 25 percent of those early ballots, according to Dan Smith, a University of Florida political science professor who published some of the early voting data on his must-read Election Smith blog.

Due to such strong African-American turnout after the beginning of in-person early voting in 2012, Democrats began outpacing Republicans in total ballots cast before Election Day, by about 10,000. This year, though, Republicans still cling to their own lead of about 9,000. As of Monday morning about 3.7 million absentee and in-person early ballots had been cast, 40.5 percent of them by Republicans and 40.2 percent by Democrats.

I totally agree that Trump's success or failure hinges on whether he can win Florida. I'm also a lot less confident about Hillary's chances there than I was two weeks ago.
 

Goose wrote:

Yes, the NYT is running a story on decreased early voting among African Americans.
Troubling, but there is still time.

Yeah, it looks like the Clinton campaign is tripling down on showing the country Trump's deplorable behavior towards women. 

A new set of Clinton campaign commercials started in the Philadelphia region on Monday and they'll pivoted back to the Billy Bush incident, and Trump's comments about Megyn Kelly, Alicia Muchado, Rosie O'Donnell, etc. They've been the most brutal ads against Trump yet.

I'm guessing they feel that's Trump's weakest spot at this point. 

Six days. 

 

Florida and NC will be close. Looks like Ohio will go Trump. 

But even if Trump sweeps Fla, NC, and Ohio looks like he is still short on the electoral vote. 

My biggest concern is complacency.

Trump's doing his best to defeat himself I just hope Clinton's campaign isn't picking out drapes for the White House just yet.

I honestly think Hillary's best bet would be to hammer on Trump about his tax returns, not offensive things he's said in the past.  If there's one hot-button word that can influence an election, it's TAXES.  Whether Trump did everything legally or not with his taxes doesn't matter, it's the perception that matters.  If Hillary were smart, she would seize on that and hammer him with it.