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3/23/2015 4:54 am  #1


Yemen is Going Down

Out of Yemen, U.S. Is Hobbled in Terror Fight

WASHINGTON — The evacuation of 125 United States Special Operations advisers from Yemen in the past two days is the latest blow to the Obama administration’s counterterrorism campaign, which is already struggling with significant setbacks in Syria, Libya and elsewhere in the volatile region, American officials said Sunday.

The loss of Yemen as a base for American counterterrorism training, advising and intelligence-gathering carries major implications not just there, but throughout a region that officials say poses the most grievous threat to United States global interests and to the country itself.

The rapid rise of the Islamic State has commanded the immediate attention of President Obama and other Western leaders in the past year. But American officials say that Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen, which includes the most potent bomb maker in the terrorist world, still poses the most direct threat to Americans at home, abroad or aboard commercial aircraft. Since 2009, the United States has thwarted at least three plots by the group to bring down airliners.

Even after the withdrawal of American troops, the Central Intelligence Agency will still maintain some covert Yemeni agents in the country. Armed drones will carry out some airstrikes from bases in nearby Saudi Arabia or Djibouti in the Horn of Africa, as was done most recently on Feb. 20. Spy satellites will still lurk overhead and eavesdropping planes will try to suck up electronic communications.

But the loss of American personnel on the ground makes any counterterrorism mission far more difficult.

“We will have no intelligence footprint,” Representative Michael McCaul, a Texas Republican who is chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” “Good intelligence stops plots against the homeland. Without intelligence, we cannot effectively stop it.”

Other lawmakers, though, have expressed concern that the administration is exaggerating the terrorism threat, and warn that this could lead to further American military entanglements overseas.

But administration officials say that in many trouble spots they rely on allies — such as the French in West Africa to counter extremists like Boko Haram — rather than deploying large numbers of American troops.

The United States has worked around obstacles like Yemen’s turmoil before, notably in Pakistan and Somalia, where the C.I.A. and the Pentagon in the past decade stitched together local spy networks that provided information for drone strikes and occasional commando raids on Qaeda militants. But that approach has always been considered an imperfect substitute to having United States forces on the ground, training and advising military and security allies.

This challenge will also be a part of the discussions Mr. Obama and his top aides will hold with President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan this week.

About 2,000 of the approximately 10,000 troops that the United States is likely to carry over into 2016 — more than originally planned — are assigned to counterterrorism missions, mainly along the Afghan-Pakistan border. The C.I.A. relies on the American troops to provide security for its covert counterterrorism operations, including drone strikes in Pakistan.

What has complicated the American global counterterrorism mission most dramatically in the past year is the rise of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. The group’s expanding attraction now seems to be inspiring not only ideological followers from Nigeria to Afghanistan, but also loyalists with only tenuous ties to the parent group who are willing to carry out deadly attacks, as happened last week at a popular museum in Tunisia and two mosques in Yemen.

The Islamic State began attracting pledges of allegiance from groups and individual fighters after it declared the formation of a caliphate, or religious state, in June 2014. Counterterrorism analysts say it is using Al Qaeda’s franchise structure to expand its geographic reach, but without Al Qaeda’s rigorous, multiyear application process. This could allow its franchises to grow faster, easier and farther.

It is a trend that American counterterrorism officials say they are struggling to understand and defeat. Indeed, John O. Brennan, the C.I.A. director, voiced deep concerns this month over “the emergence of a terrorist threat that is increasingly decentralized, difficult to track and even more difficult to thwart.”

With the Islamic State and its supporters producing as many as 90,000 Twitter posts and other social media responses every day, American officials also acknowledge the difficulty of blunting the group’s digital momentum in the same way a United States-led air campaign has slowed its advances on the battlefield in Iraq and, to a lesser extent, in Syria.

“We have an effective counternarrative, but the volume, the sheer volume, we are losing the battle today,” Michael B. Steinbach, the F.B.I.’s top counterterrorism official, told a House panel last month. “The amount of use of social media and other Internet-based activities eclipses our effort.”

Continued at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/23/us/politics/out-of-yemen-us-is-hobbled-in-terror-fight.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0


We live in a time in which decent and otherwise sensible people are surrendering too easily to the hectoring of morons or extremists. 
 

3/23/2015 7:19 am  #2


Re: Yemen is Going Down

Yemen has always been the Wild West of the Arabian peninsula. Having Americans leave the country is for safety reasons. The people that are critical of this move are the same dohwads that criticized the establishment of U.S. diplomatic enclaves in Libya. Intelligence operations are important, but most of this information comes from in country, on the ground, local informants; not special ops forces.

We will still operate drone attacks from bases in Saudi Arabia and Africa based on this intelligence.

The biggest influence against terrorist groups in the area is for Yemen's neighbors to get involved militarily, financially, through humanitarian programs, education, etc. to combat this scourge of violence. I don't care if their only reasoning is self preservation, if they don't get off their butts and start openly opposing these forces, our independent actions in the area will only exacerbate the violence and increase the likelihood of attacks against Americans abroad and at home.

 

3/23/2015 7:52 am  #3


Re: Yemen is Going Down

Here is a pretty good overview of Yemen and how it got to where it currently is (basically a civil war of Muslim vs Muslim). 

BWI, I agree with Rongone's final assessment above. 

http://www.edition.cnn.com/2015/03/23/middleeast/yemen-how-we-got-here/index.html
 


"Do not confuse motion and progress, A rocking horse keeps moving but does not make any progress"
 
 

3/23/2015 2:38 pm  #4


Re: Yemen is Going Down

I'll believe it when I see it:




Saudi Arabia: Arabs will take action over Yemen if peace efforts fail

RIYADH (Reuters) - Arab countries will take necessary measures to protect the region against "aggression" by Yemen's Iranian-allied Houthi group if a peaceful solution cannot be found to that country's turmoil, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said on Monday.

The Houthis and Yemeni President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi have established rival power centers in Sanaa and Aden and denied each other's legitimacy, and appear to be moving towards open conflict.

Asked if Riyadh might offer military aid to Hadi, whom it recognizes as Yemen's legitimate ruler, Prince Saud said: "Certainly, countries in the region and the Arab world will take the necessary measures to protect the region from aggression."

Speaking at a joint news conference with British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond, Prince Saud repeated an invitation to all Yemen's rival factions, including the Houthis, to attend peace talks in the kingdom.

Hammond said Britain and its allies were discussing their response.

"The international community will not stand by while Houthi forces and other actors continue to undermine stability in Yemen and seek to fragment that country and undermine its legitimate president," he said, adding: "None of us wants to see military action."

Asked about Tehran's role in supporting the Houthis in Yemen, Prince Saud said he was "against Iran's interference" and also attacked what he described as Iran's efforts to "stir up sectarian conflict" in Arab states.

Earlier, in Cairo, Riyadh Yaseen, named by Hadi as his interim foreign minister, called for Gulf Arab military intervention in Yemen, and notably the imposition of a no-fly zone, to stop territorial advances by Houthi fighters.

 

3/23/2015 4:46 pm  #5


Re: Yemen is Going Down

I'll agree with rongone ............ I'll believe it when I see it.

 

3/26/2015 6:23 am  #6


 

3/26/2015 6:48 am  #7


Re: Yemen is Going Down

Looks like the Sunni Arab states are finally going to try to contain Iran's ambitions


We live in a time in which decent and otherwise sensible people are surrendering too easily to the hectoring of morons or extremists. 
     Thread Starter
 

3/26/2015 8:44 am  #8


Re: Yemen is Going Down

They realize their own necks are on the line and we (the US) aren't likely going to commit ground troups to the effort. 

 


"Do not confuse motion and progress, A rocking horse keeps moving but does not make any progress"
 
 

3/29/2015 9:27 am  #9


Re: Yemen is Going Down

tennyson wrote:

They realize their own necks are on the line and we (the US) aren't likely going to commit ground troups to the effort. 

 

Just a little more on the coming together of some of the Arab world in this venture 

Arab League agrees to create joint military force

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-32106939
 


"Do not confuse motion and progress, A rocking horse keeps moving but does not make any progress"
 
 

3/29/2015 2:19 pm  #10


Re: Yemen is Going Down

More on the proposed Arab joint force:

Arab leaders agree joint military force

Sharm el Sheikh (Egypt) (AFP) - Arab leaders agreed on Sunday to form a joint military force after a summit dominated by a Saudi-led offensive on Shiite rebels in Yemen and the threat from Islamist extremism.

Arab representatives will meet over the next month to study the creation of the force and present their findings to defence ministers within four months, according to the resolution adopted by the leaders.

"Assuming the great responsibility imposed by the great challenges facing our Arab nation and threatening its capabilities, the Arab leaders had decided to agree on the principle of a joint Arab military force," Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi told the summit in the resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh.

The decision was mostly aimed at fighting jihadists who have overrun swathes of Iraq and Syria and secured a foothold in Libya, Arab League chief Nabil al-Arabi said ahead of the summit.

On Sunday, Arabi told the meeting the region was threatened by a "destructive" force that threatened "ethnic and religious diversity", in an apparent reference to the Islamic State group.

"What is important is that today there is an important decision, in light of the tumult afflicting the Arab world," he said.

Egypt had pushed for the creation of the rapid response force to fight militants, and the matter gained urgency this week after Saudi Arabia and Arab allies launched air strikes on Huthi rebels in Yemen.

A handout picture made available by the Egyptian presidency shows Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al …
Arabi, reading a statement at the conclusion of the summit, said on Sunday the offensive would continue until the Huthis withdraw from regions they have overrun and surrender their weapons.

Several Arab states including Egypt are taking part in the military campaign, which Saudi King Salman said on Saturday would continue until the Yemeni people "enjoy security".

- 'Months to create' -

Yemeni President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi at the start of the summit called for the offensive to end only when the Huthis "surrender", calling the rebel leader an Iranian "puppet".

However, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged the leaders to find a peaceful resolution in Yemen.

"It is my fervent hope that at this Arab League summit, leaders will lay down clear guidelines to peacefully resolve the crisis in Yemen," he said.

James Dorsey, a Middle East analyst with the Singapore-based S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said that despite support for a joint-Arab force, "it would still take months to create and then operate on an ad-hoc basis.

Saudi Brigadier General Ahmed Asiri, spokesman of the Saudi-led coalition forces, speaks to the medi …
"I don't think we will get an integrated command anytime soon, as no Arab leader would cede control of any part of their army anytime soon," he said.

"Today we will have a formal declaration that would be negotiated every time during action."

Sisi said in a recent interview that the proposal for a joint force was welcomed especially by Jordan, which might take part alongside Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

Aaron Reese, deputy research director at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, said "each of these countries would bring a different capability.

"The Jordanians are well known for their special forces capability... the Egyptians of course have the most manpower and bases close to Libya."

Before Egyptian air strikes in February targeting the IS in Libya, the United Arab Emirates, which shares Cairo's antipathy towards Islamists, had reportedly used Egyptian bases to launch its own air strikes there.

Cairo had sought UN backing for intervention in Libya, dismissing attempted peace talks between the rival governments in its violence-plagued North African neighbour as ineffective.




It seems like the biggest doubters in the ability of the Mid East countries to band together to defeat extremist groups are Western observers and so-called outside experts on the area.

It's easy to buy into their cynicism . . . after all they've been really accurate with their observances, predictions, and expertise on the area for the past 20 years, it's hard to challenge their theories.

 

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