1 of 1- Goose
- Cogito ergo sum
Offline 
- Registered: 1/29/2015
- Posts: 13,427
A Tricky Path to Victory
Here's an interesting rainy day activity. Look at the 2012 electoral college map. Imagine that Trump wins every state that Mitt Romney won. Now, try to imagine what states that Romney lost that Trump might win. Keep in mind that Trump's unfavorables among women and hispanics are higher than were Romney's.
Below is an interactive map that does the math for you. Just click on states to play with various scenarios.
In my exercise I flipped Ohio, Florida, Connecticut, and New Hampshire over to the Republican column, and Clinton still eeks out a narrow win with 274 electoral votes.
Trump really has his work cut out for him. Of course the election is not being held today. Poll numbers we are looking at right now will not be the numbers in November.
Trump will reinvent himself. He should not be taken lightly. I know that Clinton will not make that mistake
Last edited by Goose (5/04/2016 12:30 pm)
We live in a time in which decent and otherwise sensible people are surrendering too easily to the hectoring of morons or extremists.
- Goose
- Cogito ergo sum
Offline
- Registered: 1/29/2015
- Posts: 13,427
Re: A Tricky Path to Victory
I was considering a scenario in which Pennsylvania is in play, based upon Trump's strength in the rural center of the state. However, that likely generates the same result as 2012.
Obama V Romney
We live in a time in which decent and otherwise sensible people are surrendering too easily to the hectoring of morons or extremists.
- •
Thread Starter- Brady Bunch
- Exchanger
Offline
- Registered: 1/29/2015
- Posts: 862
Re: A Tricky Path to Victory
Realistic states he might pick up would be PA, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin. That would put him at 270 if he holds all of Romney's states.
I have a hard time seeing him pickup Florida.
States Romney won in 2012 that Trump may have issues with would be North Carolina, Missouri and Arizona
- Brady Bunch
- Exchanger
Offline
- Registered: 1/29/2015
- Posts: 862
Re: A Tricky Path to Victory
I think Trump has a chance to do better than Romney in the western counties, precisely due to his rhetoric about bringing back jobs and saving the mining industry. It is these blue-collar Dems that are now supporting Bernie and don't like Hillary who Trump will attract.
- Goose
- Cogito ergo sum
Offline
- Registered: 1/29/2015
- Posts: 13,427
Re: A Tricky Path to Victory
Brady Bunch wrote:
Realistic states he might pick up would be PA, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin. That would put him at 270 if he holds all of Romney's states.
I have a hard time seeing him pickup Florida.
States Romney won in 2012 that Trump may have issues with would be North Carolina, Missouri and Arizona
Whoa, that would be a squeeker, 270-268.
Nobody would be going to bed early - if at all - on election night!
Last edited by Goose (5/04/2016 12:51 pm)
We live in a time in which decent and otherwise sensible people are surrendering too easily to the hectoring of morons or extremists.
- •
Thread Starter- Goose
- Cogito ergo sum
Offline
- Registered: 1/29/2015
- Posts: 13,427
Re: A Tricky Path to Victory
Michigan went to Obama by 9 points in 2012.
PA has gone democratic in the past 6 elections.
Trump's economic message would really have to upset the traditional chess board for this to come about.
Hey, it could happen. This has been a very different election thus far to date.
Interesting, to say the least.
We live in a time in which decent and otherwise sensible people are surrendering too easily to the hectoring of morons or extremists.
- •
Thread Starter- Tarnation
- Administrator
Offline
- From: Upstream where water's clean
- Registered: 1/29/2015
- Posts: 1,241
Re: A Tricky Path to Victory
Obama V Romney
I like that map (I've seen the national version also) because the gradients are much more indicative of the relative strength of each candidate or party than in a simple red/blue map.
If the General election were held soon I can envision Allegheny county being the second-to-lightest red, Centre county the lightest red/pink, and Dauphin county likewise. The only blue areas not to lighten would be Philadelphia and DelCo.
Life is an Orthros.